Unexpected exits, stunning upsets and crazy finishes are the hallmarks of NASCAR's modern playoff format. But there are a couple of signs that this yr will likely be unlike every other. There are familiar faces and unexpected names, all on a schedule that has doubled the variety of racetracks and road courses. While a dominant driver has not previously won a title, this may very well be the yr when a very unexpected driver wins all of it.
The chaos factor favors the weaker ones
For the primary time, there will likely be two road courses and two draft tracks within the last 10 races. Charlotte ROVAL and Talladega Superspeedway will likely be joined by Watkins Glen International and Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Olympic break forced NASCAR to vary its schedule, and people races are actually evenly split between the primary two rounds.
That’s key for drivers like Harrison Burton, who would normally struggle to attain on the usual tracks that make up nearly all of the schedule. But because the reconfiguration, Atlanta now races more like a superspeedway. Earlier this yr, the race featured 10 cautions and 28 of the 37 drivers were involved in a crash. It led to a dramatic, wide photo finish that saw Daniel Suarez take Trackhouse Racing’s only victory of the 2024 season. The advantage enjoyed by teams like Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing will likely be severely blunted by the addition of one other racetrack where anyone can win, and one unsuitable move could send the title favorites right into a catastrophic finish.
Watch: Race Replay: Crazy Race, Photo Finish in Atlanta
The same may be said for Talladega within the second round, a playoff fixture and at all times probably the most feared race within the postseason. Surprise playoff entries can use those draft paths in subsequent rounds, and even jump to the third round, just by avoiding the carnage — and even stealing one other win.
Charlotte ROVAL is one other race that has not had a shortage of chaos. Given the strategies used on road courses, drivers often need to sacrifice track position for stage points, mixing up the order and placing those drivers deep in the sphere for subsequent restarts. This will now occur twice as Watkins Glen is included within the opening round.
Four of the primary six playoff races are unpredictable tracks, giving outsiders a very good likelihood to make a deep run within the playoffs. Burton and Cindric have each won Cup races on draft tracks. Suarez’s first profession win got here on the road course. Chase Briscoe is one other driver who may gain advantage from those tracks. Meanwhile, former Cup champions Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. have never won on a draft track. Larson has crashed in 4 of the last five races at Atlanta, showing just how chaotic the track has change into since its reconfiguration.
Playoff spoilers steal the show
With so many surprises within the playoffs, the regular contenders are actually out of the championship hunt. Two-time Cup champion Kyle Busch did not qualify for the primary time in 12 years, ending the regular season with two consecutive podium finishes. He is currently attempting to keep his NASCAR-record 19-race winning streak alive. Chris Buescher has the fourth-best average finish of anyone this yr and can be out. Ross Chastain hasn’t missed the playoffs since joining Trackhouse at first of the Next Gen era (2022). Just last yr, he became the primary non-playoff driver within the elimination era to win the title decider, upsetting the Championship 4 finale in a way never seen before. Bubba Wallace’s season has been tough, but 23XI Racing just won the regular-season title with Tyler Reddick. Both of Wallace's Cup wins got here at playoff tracks (Talladega and Kansas).
Watch: Chris Buescher 'didn't quite make it' after missing playoffs
These are drivers who don’t have anything left to lose. They are to this point ahead of those in twenty first place within the standings that stage points won't even count. They are only here to win races and prove they need to be within the play-offs.
Then there are those deeper within the points standings, fighting for his or her racing lives (and livelihoods). There’s still no telling where Corey LaJoie, Zane Smith and Ryan Preece will likely be in 2025. They’re not the one drivers whose futures are in query. The racetracks will likely be an enormous opportunity for them to win, as Burton did at Daytona.
Oh, and I also needs to mention: road racing champions Juan Pablo Montoya and Shane van Gisbergen will likely be competing at Watkins Glen.
