For the primary time ever, Round 16 will feature a draft track and street race, just like Round 12. This will likely be a consider what will probably be probably the most unpredictable playoffs yet, and drivers are fearful of what lies ahead.

In the spring, as many as 16 cars were involved in a crash late in the primary lap at Atlanta Motor Speedway, which opens the 2024 playoffs. By the top of the race, 75% of the sector was within the wreck. This weekend’s race will probably be held in the warmth of the day, which increases the issue because your entire field is racing close together.

Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing, MoneyLion Toyota Camry, Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing, BREZTRI Chevrolet Camaro and Noah Gragson, Stewart-Haas Racing, Black Rifle Coffee / Ranger Boats Ford Mustang and Harrison Burton, Wood Brothers Racing, Motorcraft/Quick Lane Accident Ford Mustang on turn 1

Photo: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

“The first round definitely has to be respected because it’s not a piece of cake by any means,” said Chase Elliott, who won the title in 2020. “That’s what you get when you have these short rounds and every year we add another track there and it’s crazy. You keep reinventing it and that’s what you’re going to get.”

His Hendrick Motorsports teammate and Cup champion Kyle Larson wasn’t thrilled to see Atlanta as the primary race of the primary round. In addition to the chaotic nature of the race, Larson is a driver with a poor track record. He’s been out of the race in 4 of the last five Atlanta races, but after the restart he’s atop the points list, so he has the advantage.

“Yeah, I don’t like watching Atlanta in the playoffs at all,” Larson admitted, but “I’d rather they were in the first round than the second or third round. So yeah, I think the bonus points and the playoff points that we got during the regular season are nice. But that’s not a guarantee. You still can’t have any problems, especially in the coming weeks, and hopefully you can just get through.”

Atlanta isn't the one wild card

Larson can be uninterested in the track that follows Atlanta — Watkins Glen International. Suppressed by the Olympic break, it’s now also a part of the playoffs. “They’re just questionable places,” Larson said.

“You can completely go off the corner and drop to 20 or worse and never recover. But yeah, we were good there. From what I've heard coming back, I think our tires will be a lot softer, so the drop should be a lot bigger. So I don't think you can rely on past results completely. I don't know… we might not be as dominant as we were there. Yeah, it's just a bit of an unknown going into Watkins Glen.”

The unknown appears to be the theme of the opening round. Bristol Motor Speedway is the elimination race for the Round of 16. While that track is all the time an unknown, it’s going to be made worse by the tire that caused a commotion within the spring race — one which NASCAR officials celebrated. The tire wear caused a record variety of lead changes on the short track, 54 in total.

Watch: Race Replay: The Cup Series returns to concrete racing at Bristol

“The Bristol thing in the spring was just a weird thing and it sounds like they really wanted to recreate it, from what I’ve heard,” Elliott explained. “And I don’t know if we knew why it happened in the spring, but if they can create some kind of craziness in the spring, then yeah, it’s going to be wild. But I don’t know if you’ll really know until you get there and you’re kind of in the moment. So I think in the scenarios that you’re asking about, you just have to be there and get in there and try to figure it out. Because some of these things are going to be hard to plan for.”

Another Hendrick driver who isn’t sure what to anticipate at Bristol is William Byron. He damaged his automobile just 20 laps into the 500-lap race earlier this 12 months. “I don’t know what to expect yet. I think we’ve got a few things to figure out and learn, but we haven’t really thought about it too much. It all depends on how the resin reacts to the track and how the tires wear, or whether the rubber on the track is the same as it’s been in the past. I’m not really sure. We’ll see.”

One driver who might be really enthusiastic about this round is Daniel Suarez. Trackhouse Racing’s only playoff berth secured his spot in a dramatic three-wide victory at Atlanta earlier this 12 months. He was even involved in a crash early within the race, but bounced back to win by just 0.003 seconds.

Race winner Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing, Chevrolet Camaro

Photo: Ben Earp / NKP / Motorsport Images

“You never know,” Suarez said when asked what to anticipate. “It’s going to be about 20 degrees warmer than last time, so we’ll have less grip. So if you’ve seen the cars moving around, you’ll see it even more. I think we had a great car last time and hopefully we’ll have an even better one this time. We just have to keep pushing, keep working hard and focus on one race at a time.”

Martin Truex Jr. is dead last within the playoff standings after the reset and believes Atlanta “will be tough” for all drivers.

“Racing during the day, the track is getting older, the cars won’t handle as well,” he explained. “It’s going to be a lot harder than in the spring. And the risk of chaos is greater.”

He later added: “I mean, as crazy as it might be in some places and has been in the past, whatever you do, just race one at a time. Take it one at a time and hopefully have a good race, go home and say you nailed it in one and we'll focus on the next one. That's all you can really do.”

Round 16 “the hardest round”

It feels like much of what happens over the subsequent three weeks is out of the driving force's control. Ty Gibbs, who’s making his first playoff appearance, believes this will probably be the hardest round of all of them.

“Atlanta is certainly not in our control. There's a whole lot of avoiding disasters and getting there and ending the race, but Watkins Glen and Bristol – I don't know much concerning the tires. Bristol was pretty tricky. I feel it's going to be an interesting round. I feel it's probably the toughest round, to be honest. I mean – I'm last within the playoffs – so me ending eighth is about 4 points. If you win each stages and don't finish, you're still a loser at the top of the race. You should finish the race. I might be unsuitable, but I'm pretty sure should you don't finish the race you're in trouble.

“A lot depends on consistency and avoiding disaster.”

During last weekend’s Southern 500 Cup Series race, 23XI Racing investor Curtis Polk had a wierd sign on his back: “Please don’t ask me about my charter. I don’t want to discredit NASCAR and lose it.” Polk’s message was a jab at an anti-disparagement clause that might develop into a part of the brand new deal.

“Yeah, that’s a threat,” Hamlin said when asked in regards to the potential clause. “That’s if you’re talking negatively. If they don’t like what you’re saying, yeah, they try to reserve the right.”

Many details of NASCAR’s ownership proposal remain under wraps, however it’s clear NASCAR and its teams are struggling to succeed in an agreement on a brand new charter contract for 2025. Denny Hamlin, co-owner of 23Xi Racing, has aggressively used his speaking engagement to develop into one of the outspoken voices opposing a few of NASCAR’s proposals.

On Saturday morning, racing finally got underway when 23XI Racing released a press release saying it had decided not to satisfy NASCAR’s deadline — and in doing so, declined to sign a brand new charter for the 2025 season that will align with the proposals.

23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick (right of trophy) celebrates winning the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular season title with team owners Curtis Polk, Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan

Photo: Lesley Ann Miller / Motorsport Images

The tension has been constructing for a while, and was especially evident last weekend when 23XI driver Tyler Reddick won the regular-season title at Darlington. No one from NASCAR management attended the trophy ceremony. “You know, I’m certainly very disappointed that no one from NASCAR is presenting Tyler with a trophy,” Hamlin said. “It was a little disappointing.”

It led to one among the Cup Series’ most outstanding teams — and most outspoken drivers, Hamlin — publicly difficult the game’s leadership. But Hamlin and Team 23XI’s rejection of the charter was essentially the most vocal protest yet. And it set a deep line that other team owners were reluctant to cross.

November 23 Statement and the Line within the Sand

In response to the team's refusal to sign its charter based on NASCAR's imposed timeline, 23XI Racing released a press release explaining its position.

“23XI decided not to satisfy NASCAR's deadline last night to sign two-car charter agreements for 2025-2031. 23XI's position, as stated in its letter to NASCAR, is that we didn’t have the chance to fairly negotiate a brand new charter agreement. We have notified NASCAR of the problems that have to be addressed, in writing, by that deadline.

“We are interested in engaging in constructive discussions with NASCAR to resolve these issues and move forward in a way that leads to a fair resolution while strengthening the sport we all love. At 23XI Racing, we remain committed to competing at the highest level while remaining true to our belief that NASCAR should be governed by fair and equitable practices.”

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, FedEx Ultimate Toyota Camry Fan Contest, Coach Joe Gibbs

Photo: Matthew T. Thacker / NKP / Motorsport Images

It’s clear that the Michael Jordan-Hamlin co-owned team believes it has enough influence to push for change. But these are uncharted waters for NASCAR, and it’s unclear where 23XI or NASCAR management will go from here. The two sides seem like far apart, judging by interviews Wednesday during media day, during which Hamlin indicated that “they’re still going in the wrong direction in the negotiations.”

Denny Hamlin and the “one-sided” deal

“There are probably some teams that would just gladly take any offer they can get, but there are also some that have business sense and think it’s unwise,” Hamlin added.

Hamlin believes management sees him as only a “thorn in their side.” He offered a bit more detail in regards to the latest deal, calling it “one-sided” in favor of the sanctioning body. “I was making good money doing that as a NASCAR driver, and I decided to invest back into the France family and NASCAR,” Hamlin said. “And they haven’t shown me an opportunity yet where I could get that back.”

FOX Sports reporter Bob Pockrass reported that Front Row Motorsports also declined to sign the contract, but there was no official statement from FRM yet.

Speaking more about what this latest deal could mean for NASCAR's power structure, Hamlin added, “Who's the jury, the judge and the executioner? It sounds like it's the same person. It never was the same person, but now they're proposing it is.”

Denny Hamlin's disastrous qualifying run leaves him at the underside of the 38-car field. He immediately takes the ailing No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota to the garage with a possible driveline issue. The hood is popped, and the crew quickly tries to evaluate the situation under the watchful eye of NASCAR officials.

“They’re definitely seeing some red flags,” Hamlin told NBC Sports. “They’ll get to it tonight, figure it out and fix it for tomorrow.”

Hamlin may have to pass the whole field on Sunday, but he's confident they'll give you the chance to “fight for the front. Our Camry will be pretty good tomorrow. We feel pretty good about what we brought home, we just have to get to the finish line.”

Michael McDowell, who has no poles in the primary 16 years of his profession, earned his fifth pole of the 2024 season at Atlanta on Saturday. Ford drivers qualified 1-5, continuing a trend by which the blue oval dominates the timesheets at draft tracks. Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney will line up with McDowell on the front row as the driving force with the very best playoff qualifier.

Watch: Michael McDowell Takes Pole Position at Atlanta 2024

“I’m so proud of everyone in Front Row,” McDowell said. “We knew we had a chance, based on Daytona, but to get that Mustang its fifth pole of the year – we’re trying to get the most poles. Just keep fighting, but really proud of the effort.”

He later added: “The good thing for us was that in the race our car was racing really well and sometimes you cut them and get a lot of speed and you get into the race and it's just a handful, but we were leading a lot of laps, we had a really fast car. I thought we had one of the better running cars, so I don't feel like we're losing anything in the race with the speed that we have, and it was the same thing a few weeks ago in Daytona. I thought we had one of the fastest cars, so it's just about executing and being there to the end and giving ourselves a chance to win the race.”

Todd Gilliland will start third, Josh Berry fourth and Austin Cindric fifth. Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, William Byron and Chase Briscoe rounded out the highest ten.

In addition to the primary five rows, listed below are the playoff drivers starting within the grid: Alex Bowman eleventh; Harrison Burton twelfth; Chase Elliott sixteenth; Brad Keselowski nineteenth; Ty Gibbs twentieth; Martin Truex Jr. twenty second; Tyler Reddick twenty third; Christopher Bell twenty sixth; Daniel Suarez thirtieth; Denny Hamlin thirty eighth.

The first stage in Atlanta is just 60 laps long, so there will probably be no green-flag pit stops. As such, grid positions will probably be key to earning worthwhile stage points, but only six of the 16 play-off drivers made it to the ultimate round of qualifying.